November 20, 2013
Today the Legislative Analyst’s Office released the five-year revenue and expenditure estimates for California’s State Budget. This is the most optimistic projection since 2007-08. We hope that it will not suffer the same recession battered fate as the 2007-08 projection.
The top line is State General Fund revenue growing by $27.1 billion between now and 2019-20 (even after the end of the Proposition 30 sales and income tax increases). Of this, the 2013-14 revenues are expected to be $4.7 billion above the Governor’s Budget projection, while 2014-15 will be $5.8 billion greater than 2013-14.
The minimum guarantee is projected to be $2.7 billion greater than the Governor’s Budget projection for the current year 2013-14, and increase by an additional $5.0 billion for 2014-15 and $3.1 billion for 2015-16.
The LAO projects that Corporate Income Tax will not grow as fast as projected in the budget. This could mean no significant growth in Proposition 39 funding. Because the Legislature has to appropriate the funds each year, the 2014-15 per pupil allocation will not be set until after the State Budget is adopted in June.